The German government just launched a multibillion Euro package to save the climate, which is being criticised by about every segment of society. This could mean it is exactly right… or simply very wrong.
As I see it, the criticism demonstrates the same problem as the package itself. Politicians felt pushed by the streets: Fridays for Future and Extinction Rebellion as well as other emotional expressions by the populace triggered a package that tries to please everybody – an impossibility.
And it will achieve practically nothing to save the climate. With Germany being just a rather small contributor to climate change in the global context and the other polluters not doing much against it, the package cannot be blamed for failing to safe the climate.. But it does not achieve much to help prepare Germany for the inevitable change of climate, the eventual lack of fossil fuels for transportation and, under the current approach, the collapse of individual traffic as we know it. I consider this to be its most important short coming.
Take the railways: To lure travellers and commuters away from cars and planes onto trains, the climate package includes a reduced VAT on train tickets. A nice idea, but overcrowded commuter trains will hardly attract more passengers. The capacity of long-distance ICE trains could not even cope with a 10 percent shift from private car and plane traffic on most routes. Repeatedly, experience has shown that consumer demand is not price elastic but determined by comfort and convenience. And a reduced VAT does not even wash money into government coffers to finance railroad infrastructure. But presumably, it raises the comfort levels of politicians. Maybe it is convenient for all those parties to hope to get their share out of the package. At best, it is a sleeping pill.
A sound choice would have been a long-term perspective on developing railways, not only in Germany, but in Europe. There is an existing network (with thousands of kilometres of decommissioned lines that can be re-established), there is immense knowledge and there is sufficient energy – once sober math has established that sustaining private vehicle traffic with batteries fuelled by today’s battery technology is a dead end.
Climate change demands a considerate, scientific, and strategic response to multiple related challenges. Fixing the European railroad network in order to substitute commuter car and plane travel up to 500 km and plane travel between 500 and 1,500 km with night trains would be an important first step. It might take 20 years and be a degree warmer by then, but we would then be prepared to shift the transportation of goods as well.
Who will dare?
How about German politicians switching from the daily government plane shuttle between Bonn and Berlin to sleeper trains? Not exactly daring, but a lot more convincing and perhaps even cosy.